Not anticipating any direct impacts from Earl in Philadelphia.
0Z WRF and GFS indicate delayed frontal passage compared to 12z, which is inconsistent with our forecast. Should push back rain in State College especially, so little/no chance in the evening.
0Z runs also bring more low-level moisture a bit farther south than forecasted for Saturday. But still don't anticipate showers in State College behind the front.
0Z WRF shows a moist but weak short-wave Monday morning. The intensity of rain that WRF presents looks somewhat suspicious to me. But whatever rain does develop looks like it stays to the north.
Another ridge builds and warms things up again early next week. GFS has been moving up the timing of the next front on Wednesday/Thursday.
Scott Sieron
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