Synopsis...
Warmer temperatures will stick around for the remainder of today and most of tomorrow. However, a weak front is approaching from the west that will reach the area later Friday. All eyes are on Hurricane Earl as it approaches Cape Hatteras off the North Carolina coast, but much of Earl will stay east of the area.
Short term...(Thursday into Friday evening)
Nice weather sticks around for another 36 hours or so. Latest GFS and NAM MOS and raw data are in fairly good agreement with highs in the upper 80's to around 90 for much of the state today. With clouds rolling in overnight, temperatures could stay a little higher than guidance tonight in some areas. Tomorrow clouds could keep temperatures down in the afternoon as the weak front approaches.
Long term...(Saturday 00z - Labor Day)
Both! the WRF and GFS are in good agreement on timing, strength, and precipitation associated with weak frontal passage from between 12z Fri - 00z Saturday for the entire state. Interesting to note that PWAT values associated with the front will decrease noticably as it approaches the state, thus a lack of moisture may hinder shower and thunderstorm development associated with the front. Hurricane Earl will move up the coast that may create a few showers and storms over the far eastern sections of the viewing area - 50% POPS would seem reasonable for portions of the SE and Eastern zones. As the front moves through, moderating temps will ensue as sunny skies prevail for Sunday and Labor Day.
-Kyle Imhoff
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