Technical Discussion

 

Synopsis:

A cold front is crossing the state, sparking up scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of which are severe. These storms should last into the evening but should fizzle out by the overnight. Behind the front, Thursday and Friday look very warm, and mostly rain free. Another cold front will move across the region for the day on Saturday, but as of now it looks like it will go through dry. Sunday looks to have more clouds than sun, with temperatures cooling down for the weekend.

Short-term(Thurs-Fri)

Temperatures will continue to stay warm behind a cold front.  The GFS shows isolated shower or thunderstorm for Thursday, while the NAM shows no precipitation. After looking at what the models have been showing for the last few runs, im keeping the rain out of the forecast. Temperatures should stay warm with 850s ranging from 16-18 oC across the state. Friday looks even warmer, and since it is pre-frontal and GFS 850s in the 20 oC, I could see parts of the state(especially in the east) getting into the 90s. Dewpoints also will start to come up into the 60s, so the humidity will return.

Long-Term(Sat-Sun)

A cold front will move across the region for the day on Saturday, and the 12z run of the GFS has it passing through in the afternoon.  The GFS and NAM both show the front going through dry, with no precipitation.  The last runs showed no rainfall, so for this fact, I am going to keep the rain out of the forecast. The temperatures will come down behind the cold front and the clouds look to be sticking around for Sunday as a High pressure off the coast will bring an easterly flow that will most likely keep the clouds around.