Technical Discussion

Synopsis...

Rain tapering off from W to E today as low pressure moves into SE Canada.  Pleasant tomorrow but clouds will remain (esp. North).  Next system approaches from south on Wed night and could bring torrential rain to eastern half of PA on Thurs/Thurs night.  Expect major cool down by the weekend with temperatures well below normal.

Short Term (Tues-Wed)...

Low pressure over Erie, PA will continue to move away from the region today, dragging a cold front through the entire state by the evening.  Most of the western half of the state has seen the last of the rain today but a few lingering showers are possible.  Farther east, scattered showers and storms are likely (esp in NE/SE) until this evening.  SPC has E third of state in SLT risk for severe weather today (damaging winds main threat).  This threat should be over by evening.  Entire state dries out tonight but clouds should remain (esp in NC/NW as usual).  Temperatures tonight will not be too chilly due to the cloud cover and lack of a chilly airmass behind this system.  Expect a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow as we are in between systems.  High temperatures should be near normal.

Long Term (Wed Night-Sat)...

The fun begins on Wed night as a large plume of tropical moisture associated with what could become Tropical Storm Nicole pushes northward along the Eastern Seaboard.  This system will interact with another short wave dropping down from the Upper Midwest to produce drenching rainfall on Thursday.  Most models seem to have good agreement on timing of the system but precip amounts vary widely at this time.  Rain will overspread the state from south to north late Wed night into Thurs morning.  Bulk of the rain should be in SE/CR/RV/NE.  Trend of models seems to be a bit to the west with the precip so we included rain in all zones but kept the wording more scattered across the west.  This definitely needs to be monitored in future shifts as some models do not give rain to western zones.  However, with plenty of moisture, felt it was better to overdo the precip at this time.  Also put breezy in the wording across the eastern third of the state on Thurs due to tight pressure gradient.  Precip amounts could top 2+" across the east on Thurs so flooding concerns should also be monitored.  Rain should move out of area by Thursday night with a few lingering showers possible across northern zones on Friday morning.  Large dome of high pressure builds in by the weekend with upper level trough bringing the 0c line at 850mb into the northern half of the state by Sat/Sun.  This will allow daytime highs to finally feel like fall with temperatures in the 40s across the north, 50s for the majority of the state and 60s in SE/CR.