Thursday, September 2, 2010

9/2 Technical Discussion

Synopsis…

The ridge of high pressure that brought unseasonably warm temperatures over the last week will finally be diminishing late Friday as a strong cold approaches from the west.  This front will be pushing Hurricane Earl away from inland New England. Therefore, only the eastern portions of Pennsylvania should be receiving any scattered showers and thunderstorms, while the remainder of the state should stay dry. Due to the front's strong temperature gradient, it will also bring below average temperatures in the 60s and windy conditions.

 

Short term…

An unusually strong cold front over the Ohio Valley continues to push eastward, and the current thinking remains that the trough will sweep through the area later Friday, shoving Hurricane Earl away from our area. Pennsylvania should avoid nearly all effects from the hurricane and will instead be impacted mainly by the cold front. Scattered thunderstorms will move in from Ohio on Friday afternoon, but will encounter much drier, more stable air from about Route 15 to the east. The best chances for heavy showers will occur in the western part of the state. A tight pressure gradient will stir up the westerly winds as the front passes, setting the stage for an unusually cool weekend.

 

Long term…

Pockets of cold air in the upper levels may support additional instability clouds and showers in the west again Saturday and Sunday. The coolest spots likely will be stuck near 60 Sat, with the warmest areas approaching 70. Most areas will remain dry, and clearing skies will allow temperatures to rebound for the second half of the long weekend.


-Matt Mahalik and Erin Rohland

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