Technical Discussion

Synopsis…

 Building high pressure will allow for sunny skies and dry conditions tomorrow and Tuesday. A weak cold front will pass through the region on Wednesday, bringing with it an opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Somewhat unsettled conditions will persist through the end of the week, as another low pressure system and associated cold front approach the region.

Short-term:

All models, in the 12 UTC runs, have high pressure building into the region on Monday and Tuesday, with much sunshine across the state.  We considered forecasting fog for some of the valleys, but there were some inconsistencies.   Temperature projections were quite reasonable, all around seasonable averages for the state.

Long-term:

The models seem to be in good agreement for the timing of the passage of the weak cold front late Wednesday into Thursday.   There was decent agreement among the models of the SREF ensemble as to the precipitation possibly affecting the state on Wednesday ahead of the front, but a few members had the precipitation arriving later or following a more northward track and missing most of the state.  We were therefore somewhat conservative in our precipitation forecasts and predicted a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms for most of the state.  An important exception was the east/south-eastern portion of the state, as the 12 UTC SREF ensemble mean (and almost all individual models) indicated minimal precipitation in this region.

Temperatures:

MOS and other model projections have temperatures in the mid to upper 70s towards the beginning of the week, and above-seasonable highs as the week progresses.  This is somewhat dependent on the passage of the weak cold front, and the associated cloud cover during this time period, but we tended towards the higher end.