Synopsis...
A warm front crossing the area will keep temperatures warmer than average for the next few days followed by a weak cold frontal passage that will cool things back down this weekend and into next week.
Short Term...
As of 13z, warm front is draped across the SW section of Pennsylvania. Throughout the day, this front will cross the region, creating warm and sticky wx for the next couple days. Some moderate instability today may yield a slight chance for a shower or scattered tsra. WRF and GFS are in good agreement on front crossing the northern parts of the state by around 18z. Thus, the highest probability of a shower or thunderstorm will be in northern sections of the area along the boundary. For today and tomorrow, temperatures across the state will be unseasonably warm with temps in the mid 80's to even low 90's range for highs.
Long Term...
Weak cold fropa expected around 00z - 06z on Saturday based off of the WRF and GFS model guidance. PWATS are higher across the western portions of the state with lower values in the central - eastern parts of PA. Thus, any precipitation that occurs with this passage will be in western - central PA. Temps behind the front will be in the low 60's starting on Sunday and will slightly moderate by early next week. Some area of interest is a cutoff low and strong vort max associated with it occurring later in the week next week. Surging PWATS from the gulf and the low moving up the east coast according to at least the DGEX, CMC, and GFS could result in some heavy precipitation especially across central Pennsylvania during that time. Details needed to be sorted out on track of the low and evolution of the cyclogenesis over the SE CONUS but the potential is there for significant precipitation...stay tuned!
Kyle Imhoff
No comments:
Post a Comment