Technical Discussion

Synopsis…

High pressure will stay in command through Wednesday until a weak cold front drops down through the area promoting cloudy skies with a chance of scattered showers and storms. After this front moves on through, the ridge of high pressure will build back in for Friday until another weak cold front moves throughout the area Friday evening bringing scattered showers and storms and cooler tempeatures on Saturday.

Near Term (Tues)…

Combined with clear skies and southerly winds, temperature have risen well into the 70's today. Temperatures will not fall as much tonight as clouds will move into the area later as a weak vort max passes through the area. Lows look to right at or above MOS so lower to mid-50's is a good bet for the lows tomorrow morning.

Short Term (Wed-Fri)…

Temperatures will rise rapidly into the mid-80's ahead of the cold front on Wednesday. Later in the day, however, the ridge overhead will weaken slightly and skies will become partly to mostly cloudy for the day. Humidity will increase as the flow turns more southerly and moist. There will be a chance of showers and storms but nothing too significant as the aforementioned vort max begins to peter out. As the flow remains southerly and moist, lows will not fall much under mostly cloudy skies. Humidity will continue to rise on Thursday along with chance for a few showers in the morning as a warm front advances to our north due to a strong area of low pressure to our northwest over the Great Lakes region.  The rest of the day should be partly cloudy, warm and humid across the entire state with temperatures rising well into the 80s.  Temperatures on Friday will be much warmer than Thursday with areas making a charge at 90 ahead of the approaching cold front. As the cold front moves through, there is a possibility of scattered showers and storms. However, we will have to continue to monitor the latest model trends as the most recent runs from the 12z suite have become weaker and quicker with the cold front. The GFS has become much more progressive with the front. As a result, we end up with no measurable precipitation and just some clouds. 12z ECMWF agrees with the GFS as it also progressive with the front and weakens it quickly as it moves through. As the cold front leaves the area, Saturday looks to feature partly to mostly cloudy skies with an isolated chance of rain, and temperatures as much as 10-15 degrees cooler from Friday.

Long Term(Sat)

After Saturday, the weather looks to become very interesting as there is model consensus developing with the CMC, GFS, and EMCWF all showing a deep bowling ball cut-off low developing over the Ohio River Valley region. This could have quite an impact on our future weather next week. If this comes to fruition, temperatures could remain cool with cloudy skies. But for right now, will keep low confidence in this and just continue to watch the latest model trends.

-Matthew Mehallow