Synopsis...
The big weather event in this forecasting period comes Thursday with the arrival of a warm front and subsequent cold front. This system will bring a steady light rain throughout the state during the day. Otherwise, weather remains clear to partly cloudy for much of the forecast while retaining seasonable temperatures.
Short Term...
GFS predicts a very similar weather pattern for both Tuesday and Wednesday... Strong NW flow with very little temperature variation from day to day. Thickness is noticeably lower in the north, and lower vorticity means the north will stay partly cloudy for the day Tuesday. Persistence seems to work best for Wednesday with respect to Tuesday, except thickness lowers throughout the state, which means temperatures should be, on average, 2-4 degrees F warmer. I leaned toward GFS for the temperature forecasts, as the NAM had 5-6 degree warmer temperatures with cloudy solutions. Regardless, not much will change between Tuesday and Wednesday except a slight temperature variation, and less cloud cover Wed. High pressure will build in over S NY during this time, which will push cooler Canadian air southward, resulting in very cool overnight lows.
Long Term...
A warm front is expected to cross the state line before noon on Thursday. Coming with this front is a very large temperature gradient and a large, moist air mass. There is great disparity in temperatures on both sides of the front... Areas S and W of Pittsburgh will reach the low 80s, while the other side of the front will barely make it to the mid/upper 60s. This gradient will create very gusty conditions as the front moves through. LIs and CAPEs are not very impressive, but the vorticity above this system is very strong... Widespread light rain is expected from this system as it moves across the state. Most areas will see a 60-70% chance of rain, with low-level clouds remaining after FROPA. Friday looks much better... NW flow behind the system will help dry the area out for the day and leave partly cloudy skies for the state. Patchy fog though is expected especially in the valleys as a cooler, dry air mass takes over the moist air mass. Saturday looks to heat up a bit. Highs across the state will reach the low 70s, with partly cloudy skies. MOS suggests a gradual warming trend over the weekend and going into early next week.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
The big weather event in this forecasting period comes Thursday with the arrival of a warm front and subsequent cold front. This system will bring a steady light rain throughout the state during the day. Otherwise, weather remains clear to partly cloudy for much of the forecast while retaining seasonable temperatures.
Short Term...
GFS predicts a very similar weather pattern for both Tuesday and Wednesday... Strong NW flow with very little temperature variation from day to day. Thickness is noticeably lower in the north, and lower vorticity means the north will stay partly cloudy for the day Tuesday. Persistence seems to work best for Wednesday with respect to Tuesday, except thickness lowers throughout the state, which means temperatures should be, on average, 2-4 degrees F warmer. I leaned toward GFS for the temperature forecasts, as the NAM had 5-6 degree warmer temperatures with cloudy solutions. Regardless, not much will change between Tuesday and Wednesday except a slight temperature variation, and less cloud cover Wed. High pressure will build in over S NY during this time, which will push cooler Canadian air southward, resulting in very cool overnight lows.
Long Term...
A warm front is expected to cross the state line before noon on Thursday. Coming with this front is a very large temperature gradient and a large, moist air mass. There is great disparity in temperatures on both sides of the front... Areas S and W of Pittsburgh will reach the low 80s, while the other side of the front will barely make it to the mid/upper 60s. This gradient will create very gusty conditions as the front moves through. LIs and CAPEs are not very impressive, but the vorticity above this system is very strong... Widespread light rain is expected from this system as it moves across the state. Most areas will see a 60-70% chance of rain, with low-level clouds remaining after FROPA. Friday looks much better... NW flow behind the system will help dry the area out for the day and leave partly cloudy skies for the state. Patchy fog though is expected especially in the valleys as a cooler, dry air mass takes over the moist air mass. Saturday looks to heat up a bit. Highs across the state will reach the low 70s, with partly cloudy skies. MOS suggests a gradual warming trend over the weekend and going into early next week.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
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