Sunday, September 19, 2010

CWS Technical Discussion - Sunday

Short-term:

Broken/Scattered clouds are associated with a cold front, and once this cold front pushes through, sunshine should reappear.  The NAM and GFS both show very light precipitation with this front but looking at current conditions no precipitation can be found, so we just said period of clouds.  After the front leaves, sunshine returns as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region.  This should remain our forecast for Eastern PA until Tuesday.  The NAM and GFS 700 mb Relative Humidity shows for Monday that Western PA will cloud up, the problem is the NAM goes more in depth than the GFS does (this is due to a warm front moving through the region).  Also we do not believe that Western PA will just see clouds, so for Monday they will see partly cloudy skies, but this will not last as they will become mostly sunny for Tuesday.

Long-term:

The area of high pressure will not last as both the GFS and the NAM show a cold front bearing upon the region on Tuesday; both also show the front not making its way into the Commonwealth until Wednesday Evening.  The GFS looks to be light on precipitation, while the NAM shows scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The NAM solution looks to be more reasonable with a cold front bearing upon summer like weather.  Thursday dries out as another weak ridge builds in, but as it builds in, it will move on out as another cold front enters the picture with less precipitation than the one before.  The timing of this cold front looks to be Friday morning.

Temperatures:

Summerlike temperatures of mid to upper 70's and lower to mid 80's will make one last appearance this week for all of the Commonwealth.



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