Synopsis...
Warmer than average temperatures hang around for the next day or two, but will return to more seasonable levels once a weak cold front moves through. Any effects from Hurricane Earl should be minimal and confined to the extreme East-Southeastern parts of the state.
Short Term (Thu-Sat)...
Thursday looks to be a very warm day, and also staying clear. Raw GFS and NAM data both have the high reaching the low 90s, with SPC SREF agreeing as well with a temperature around 89-90. Friday looks to be a bit trickier... Hurricane Earl will be in proximity of the Northeast with a weak front moving through the state starting in the morning around 12Z. CAPE values for this front are very low (750J/kg or less), and LI readings are showing -2 from both the front and Earl. The most probable scenario here is a 30% POP from both systems, with everywhere else seeing partly cloudy skies for the day. Behind the front is much cooler temperatures, with an average cooling of 15 degrees expected statewide for Saturday. Also expect breezy conditions as this front moves through, considering the tight temperature gradient associated with it. The overnight low Saturday night has great potential (all models in agreement) to drop below 50 degrees.
Long Term (Sun-Mon)...
Sunday will be very similar to Saturday - milder and very seasonable for early September. Although a strong upper-level low will remain close to the north, nothing in the way of precipitation is expected till at least Monday night. Expect partly cloudy skies up through the afternoon Monday. Temperatures begin to rebound to the low to mid 70s from Monday and beyond. A weak shortwave appears to move through the area late day Monday through Tuesday, according to the long range GFS model. This will be the next system to keep an eye on early into next week, as it may be our next threat of wet weather.
Andrew Dzambo
We are... Penn State Meteorology
Warmer than average temperatures hang around for the next day or two, but will return to more seasonable levels once a weak cold front moves through. Any effects from Hurricane Earl should be minimal and confined to the extreme East-Southeastern parts of the state.
Short Term (Thu-Sat)...
Thursday looks to be a very warm day, and also staying clear. Raw GFS and NAM data both have the high reaching the low 90s, with SPC SREF agreeing as well with a temperature around 89-90. Friday looks to be a bit trickier... Hurricane Earl will be in proximity of the Northeast with a weak front moving through the state starting in the morning around 12Z. CAPE values for this front are very low (750J/kg or less), and LI readings are showing -2 from both the front and Earl. The most probable scenario here is a 30% POP from both systems, with everywhere else seeing partly cloudy skies for the day. Behind the front is much cooler temperatures, with an average cooling of 15 degrees expected statewide for Saturday. Also expect breezy conditions as this front moves through, considering the tight temperature gradient associated with it. The overnight low Saturday night has great potential (all models in agreement) to drop below 50 degrees.
Long Term (Sun-Mon)...
Sunday will be very similar to Saturday - milder and very seasonable for early September. Although a strong upper-level low will remain close to the north, nothing in the way of precipitation is expected till at least Monday night. Expect partly cloudy skies up through the afternoon Monday. Temperatures begin to rebound to the low to mid 70s from Monday and beyond. A weak shortwave appears to move through the area late day Monday through Tuesday, according to the long range GFS model. This will be the next system to keep an eye on early into next week, as it may be our next threat of wet weather.
Andrew Dzambo
We are... Penn State Meteorology
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