Synopsis

A cold front will pass through the region by early Tuesday, bringing a chance for spotty showers and breezy conditions.  A ridge of high pressure will build over the state after the passage of the front Tuesday into Wednesday, allowing for sunshine.  However, a weak cold front will affect the region Thursday into Friday, accompanied by showers.

Short-term (Monday-Tuesday)

 

The forecast was pretty straight forward for Monday, as the models were all (of course) in pretty good agreement. We mentioned breezy conditions Tuesday into Wednesday, based on, among other indications, the prediction of higher winds by the WRF NMM 12-km model behind the passage of the cold front.  We forecasted the cold front as moving through the region early on Tuesday due the surface analysis done by the HPC and other indications.  We went with no mention of precipitation associated with the cold front except for spotty showers due to both the WRF and the GFS showing very little in the way of precipitation during this time.  Temperature forecasts were straight forward as well, although the MOS differed as the week progressed with a seeming warm bias.

Long-term (Wednesday-Thursday)

There was poor agreement in the occurrence of precipitation over the state into Thursday and Friday in association with the weak cold front.  The GFS model showed spotty to very little precipitation, whereas the WRF was more generous in its precipitation predictions. A few of the models contributing to the SREF plumes suggested the occurrence of precipitation, but they were more focused actually on late Wednesday.   Since this was a minority of the models, we disregarded the information. To be on the safe side, we forecasted a chance of showers Thursday into Friday and left it at that.