Synopsis

Upper low over Canadian Maritimes continues to dominate pattern. Low-mid clouds remain in place over most of PA keeping temps below MOS levels on Thurs. Unsettled pattern moves off to east tonight allowing for clearing skies and rising temps.

 

Short-Term (Tonight through Saturday)

Not much change in thinking from previous shift. We noticed GFS exaggerating precip totals across the northeast but the cloud cover was largely under-predicted. Expect cloud cover to diminish overnight into Friday as weak ridge rolls in. Moisture associated with remnants of Hermine likely to stay far enough south to avoid major impact. Precip definitely possible, if not likely, especially across western part of PA with cold front. PWAT values appear to taper off farther east, closer to core of drier air. Models in fairly good agreement bringing front through Sat night in west and early Sun AM in east. Isolated QPF amts over 0.75 suggest the chance for heavier showers or storms.

 

Long-Term (Sunday through Tuesday)

Not much cold air behind cold front this time. MOS suggests temps will be held down by low clouds and evap cooling Sunday. Skies clear later, becoming mostly sunny for Monday. Temps warming back to near avg for early week.

Matt Mahalik