Synopsis...
A few weak disturbances are in the picture this week, but none are really noteworthy in terms of potential precipitation. The bigger story will be a temporary return of midsummer-like heat. More details to come.
Short Term...
Many areas, especially in the valleys, will likely see fog when they head out the door Tuesday morning as temperatures linger very close to the dew points. Temperatures will also be quite cool in the morning... Generally mid 40s across the state. A strong ridge in the SE part of the nation looks to shield the state from moisture for the day - the result being a picturesque day. This same ridge though will recede a bit on Wednesday, while pumping in moist air from the SE. MOS outputs and WRF 18z agree that this will at the very least yield partly to mostly cloudy skies for the day. A weak front should move in where the ridge recedes... which will probably bring an isolated shower especially in the N and W parts of the state. Regardless if any showers pop up, the temperatures will sure climb on Wednesday. MOS looks to be the best output here, bringing mid 80s to much of the state, with some spots in the S and E possibly touching 90.
Long Term...
GFS outputs show the same ridge rebuilding enough to guard the state. This will trap the leftover moisture from the previous frontal boundary, and leave the skies mostly cloudy during the day Thursday. there may be a local isolated shower, but nothing really significant. Any remnant moisture will gradually be mixed into the building dry air, resulting in gradual clearing by the evening. Temperatures will still remain warmer than average, and will probably top Wednesday's highs. Friday dries out even more. With a very similar pattern to Thursday, accompanied by lower dew points and drier air building in at 700mb and 850mb, temperatures should peak a degree or two warmer. Saturday brings an end to this unseasonably warm weather. the front itself will be weak, and will weaken as it moves through the state. The best chance of rain, according to MOS outputs, looks to be in the NE and areas around Pittsburgh and the NC region... ~40% chance. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, an isolated chance of rain, and temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler from Friday. The large temperature gradient associated with this front will bring breezy conditions with it.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
A few weak disturbances are in the picture this week, but none are really noteworthy in terms of potential precipitation. The bigger story will be a temporary return of midsummer-like heat. More details to come.
Short Term...
Many areas, especially in the valleys, will likely see fog when they head out the door Tuesday morning as temperatures linger very close to the dew points. Temperatures will also be quite cool in the morning... Generally mid 40s across the state. A strong ridge in the SE part of the nation looks to shield the state from moisture for the day - the result being a picturesque day. This same ridge though will recede a bit on Wednesday, while pumping in moist air from the SE. MOS outputs and WRF 18z agree that this will at the very least yield partly to mostly cloudy skies for the day. A weak front should move in where the ridge recedes... which will probably bring an isolated shower especially in the N and W parts of the state. Regardless if any showers pop up, the temperatures will sure climb on Wednesday. MOS looks to be the best output here, bringing mid 80s to much of the state, with some spots in the S and E possibly touching 90.
Long Term...
GFS outputs show the same ridge rebuilding enough to guard the state. This will trap the leftover moisture from the previous frontal boundary, and leave the skies mostly cloudy during the day Thursday. there may be a local isolated shower, but nothing really significant. Any remnant moisture will gradually be mixed into the building dry air, resulting in gradual clearing by the evening. Temperatures will still remain warmer than average, and will probably top Wednesday's highs. Friday dries out even more. With a very similar pattern to Thursday, accompanied by lower dew points and drier air building in at 700mb and 850mb, temperatures should peak a degree or two warmer. Saturday brings an end to this unseasonably warm weather. the front itself will be weak, and will weaken as it moves through the state. The best chance of rain, according to MOS outputs, looks to be in the NE and areas around Pittsburgh and the NC region... ~40% chance. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, an isolated chance of rain, and temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler from Friday. The large temperature gradient associated with this front will bring breezy conditions with it.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
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