Technical Discussion (9/7/10)

Synopsis...

Near record high temps today throughout the Commonwealth ahead of cold front currently pushing through Ohio Valley.  Few showers tonight associated with FROPA before becoming breezy and cooler tomorrow and Thursday.  Northwesterly flow will diminish on Friday and Saturday allowing temperatures to rebound to seasonable levels by the weekend.  Skies should remain partly cloudy with more clouds north and less south.

Near Term (Tues)...

Warm day in store for the Commonwealth with temperatures near record levels, approaching 90 in spots.  Went slightly higher than MOS to account for cold bias ahead of cold fronts. Front currently moving through Ohio Valley is moisture starved with just a few showers associated with it at this time.  Front will move into western zones after dark tonight with a few showers.  700mb and 850mb relative humidity is lackluster so do not expect a widespread rainfall (similar set up to last Friday).  CF will continue to dry out as it moves across the state tonight.  Left eastern zones dry due to lack of moisture.  Should front look healthier this evening, afternoon shift may have to include wording of showers tonight in eastern zones.  Winds will become gusty later tonight in western zones as front passes region.

Short Term (Wed-Thurs)...

CAA on Wednesday will lead to instability aloft and a CU deck (similar to last Saturday).  Temperatures will be much cooler Wed with highs not reaching 70 in western/northern areas.  SE and CR will be exception with temperatures reaching near 80 early and falling in the afternoon as CAA takes over.  Winds will be gusty as well.  Thursday should be the coolest day this week across the entire state.

Long Term (Fri-Sat)...

Low pressure centered over SE Canada will begin to move northeastward on Friday and Saturday, slackening the northwesterly flow and allowing temperatures to rebound to seasonable levels by Saturday.  Clouds will diminish on Saturday, leading to a beautiful start to the weekend.  Next storm system could move our way on Sat night/Sunday as moisture from Hermine may make its way into the region.

-Dan DePodwin