Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Forecast Discussion

Synopsis...

Tuesday warms up quite a bit before returning to September-like temperatures for the remainder of the week. A moisture-deprived cold front will move through the state Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, bringing a very slight chance of showers and cooler temperatures that will hold for the remainder of the week.


Short Term (Tue &Wed)...

The big story for Tuesday will be the strong downward mixing taking place: somewhat breezy conditions and dry air will allow temperatures to climb to the mid to upper 80s for much of the state, with some spots in the south reaching 90. A weak front, however, will begin pushing through the state Tuesday night. There is barely any moisture with this system, and CAPEs are very low, so any chance of precipitation will be less than 20% for Wednesday. Temps will fall significantly though - areas in the west will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with most everywhere else seeing mid 70s, with a few exceptions to the south and east where it will reach 80.


Long Term (Thur, Fri and Sat)...

A steady West-Northwesterly flow will set up behind the front, and will help keep temperatures a bit cooler for Thursday and Friday. Persistence seems to be a good option for these two days, seeing as environmental conditions will change very little. A weak shortwave looks to linger across the northern part of the state Saturday, but should not produce anything as far as precipitation. Leave partly cloudy skies for the day Saturday in the north, and mostly sunny everywhere else. Temperatures climb above normal for Saturday, with better mixing and winds shifting to a more SW flow. The remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine look to approach the area Saturday night. This rain event should put that much of a damper on the weekend, although it will, aside from scattered showers and storms, bring cloudy skies to much of the state.


Andrew Dzambo


We are... Penn State Meteorology




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