I will reiterate that if you cannot log on to the members section of the webpage, go directly to http://cws.met.psu.edu/members/zones.php (the submit page) and proceed as usual.
Synopsis:
The low pressure system bringing the Commonwealth rain is moving northeast, and currently the last of the rain is exiting the eastern half of the state. Flood warnings remain in effect for the eastern third of Pennsylvania. Another trough will be bringing cool temperatures and cloudy skies to the area beginning Saturday and continuing through Tuesday.
Short-term:
Breezy conditions today associated with the cold front that passed through last night, with winds around 15-20kts according to the 6Z-WRF. A deep trough associated with a weak cutoff low is forecasted by both the GFS and the WRF, and both 6Z runs of the models show the low weakening and elongating over Pennsylvania during Sunday and Monday. This low will draw colder temperatures and some breezy conditions into Pennsylvania, and as previous shifts mentioned the 540 line is in the picture again. The GFS shows it lingering for longer over the Northeastern region of Pennsylvania, while the WRF shows it dipping into the Northeastern region for only about a half a day. What happens depends on where the low stalls, but in either case we are going to have much lower temperatures starting Sunday. We also put a chance of an isolated shower in many of our forecasts for the western part of the state Sunday, as the SREF shows about a 40-50% chance of precipitation.
Long-term:
The low continues to affect us throughout Tuesday, and another system appears to be approaching from the southeast Monday and Tuesday. The SREF seems to show precipitation from the cutoff low merging into the bigger system during Monday and Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers to the eastern part of the state. The GFS doesn't show this system; instead it is forecasting for the cutoff low to move offshore and up the Atlantic coast. This is certainly something to keep an eye on throughout the next few days. It will be interesting to see if either of these two radically different models verify.
-Burkely Twiest
Synopsis:
The low pressure system bringing the Commonwealth rain is moving northeast, and currently the last of the rain is exiting the eastern half of the state. Flood warnings remain in effect for the eastern third of Pennsylvania. Another trough will be bringing cool temperatures and cloudy skies to the area beginning Saturday and continuing through Tuesday.
Short-term:
Breezy conditions today associated with the cold front that passed through last night, with winds around 15-20kts according to the 6Z-WRF. A deep trough associated with a weak cutoff low is forecasted by both the GFS and the WRF, and both 6Z runs of the models show the low weakening and elongating over Pennsylvania during Sunday and Monday. This low will draw colder temperatures and some breezy conditions into Pennsylvania, and as previous shifts mentioned the 540 line is in the picture again. The GFS shows it lingering for longer over the Northeastern region of Pennsylvania, while the WRF shows it dipping into the Northeastern region for only about a half a day. What happens depends on where the low stalls, but in either case we are going to have much lower temperatures starting Sunday. We also put a chance of an isolated shower in many of our forecasts for the western part of the state Sunday, as the SREF shows about a 40-50% chance of precipitation.
Long-term:
The low continues to affect us throughout Tuesday, and another system appears to be approaching from the southeast Monday and Tuesday. The SREF seems to show precipitation from the cutoff low merging into the bigger system during Monday and Tuesday, bringing a chance of showers to the eastern part of the state. The GFS doesn't show this system; instead it is forecasting for the cutoff low to move offshore and up the Atlantic coast. This is certainly something to keep an eye on throughout the next few days. It will be interesting to see if either of these two radically different models verify.
-Burkely Twiest
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