Synopsis:
A weak system will bring a couple lines of showers across Pennsylvania Monday night. The strengthened low will stay well to the south and west of Pennsylvania despite the 12Z operational model suite. A system in Canada will drape a cold front across PA midweek. Then high pressure builds in for the early weekend.
Short-term:
Radar indicates rain in the Minnesota area stretching into Michigan, and obs have less rain than indicated but still reports of rain. Therefore, the banding of showers as indicated by the WRF seems likely.
Long-term:
While both the WRF and the GFS 12Z have a deepening low spreading rain close to Philadelphia Tuesday night into Wednesday, the 15Z SREF was completely dry and had the rain well off-shore. We went with this based on how well the SREF seemed to do compared to the operational models with the Monday night event on Saturday morning. Based on Sunday's warmth, I tried to encourage going above MOS on Wednesday with the forecasted sunshine. The WRF and GFS have different solutions to the shape of the cold front; if you extrapolate the 0Z WRF, Pittsburgh and Johnstown should stay dry.
Scott Sieron
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