21Z Discussion - 10/28

Synopsis...

The "Upper Midwest Superstorm" and its associated cold front are pulling away from Pennsylvania this afternoon as winds pick up and temperatures fall gradually from west to east. A completely different air mass will cause much cooler conditions for the next few days. Scattered rain and snow showers are possible near the lakes, but otherwise, conditions should remain mostly dry over the weekend.

 

Short Term…

Current observations show temperatures have steadily dropped about 20 degrees behind the cold front in western PA, where wind gusts are approaching 30 mph. This pattern will overtake the entire state by tonight, and guidance shows the region will be under the influence of a cool northwesterly flow throughout the forecast period. Scattered showers (mixing with snow in the coolest areas) will continue through Friday morning in the NW with the cool flow over the lakes. Elsewhere, skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy. Wind gusts over 30 mph are possible throughout the state overnight.

 

Long Term…

PA will be under the control of a strong upper-level circulation for the weekend, with lobes of energy trying to occasionally pinwheel down. A surface ridge tries to build in during the day Saturday, raising temperatures back to near average, but another front approaches the region late Sunday. Models disagree a little on the timing and intensity; we went with a mean result with timing in NW and NC. Consensus was that front will be too weak to produce much precip outside these zones, so we kept it dry. Scattered clouds will be the rule throughout the period as cool air remains perched aloft. Latest MOS runs seem to like the calm wind/dry air solution and potentially colder temps Monday night...later shifts may want to monitor this, along with a potential late-week storm.

 

Forecaster: Matt Mahalik