Synopsis...
A strengthening, high amplitude trough over the northeastern CONUS continues to propogate eastward as cyclogenesis along the coast brings a deepening low pressure system northeast along the coasts of CT, MA, and ME throughout the next day or two. A high pressure system slides in from the northwest to the Tennessee valley over the weekend bring a persistent northwest flow to the area for the rest of the forecast period.
Short Term...
Weak low pressure over Erie, Pennsylvania at 12z will propogate eastward and continue to weaken, bringing scattered showers to western and central Pennsylvania early in the day today. Later on, as the strengthening low pressure system moves up the coast, the 6z WRF and GFS both indicate that the phasing of the two low pressure systems will create some light - moderate precipitation over northern and central PA throughout the evening, while southeastern portions of the state are in for some likely heavier precip. 09z SREFs show a gradient in QPF from about .1-.2 inches of rain in the western - central portions of PA to up to 1" over southeastern parts of PA by 00z Saturday, so current thinking is to go a little higher on rainfall amounts than what previous shift indicates..but overall distribution of precip seems reasonable from previous shift.
Long Term...
After the low pulls out of the northeastern US on Saturday, breezy North to Northwest winds will persist across the state for much of the day as a high builds in to the southwest of Pennsylvania. Thus, a persistent WNW - NW flow will setup shop for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Forecaster: Kyle Imhoff
No comments:
Post a Comment