Friday, October 15, 2010

10/15 Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

Breezy conditions from the nor'easter will affect most of the region through Sunday, however western parts of the state will feel less of an impact from this. A very weak cold front pushes through during the day on Sunday, with little expected from it in both cloud cover and precipitation. The next chance of precipitation comes on Tuesday, with a stronger front.

Short-term:

The big story short term is the wind. The 6Z SREF shows nearly a 100% chance of winds over 15MPH for over half the state. These winds diminish by the end of the weekend. Cloudy skies today will clear tonight, and remain clear through Monday. 6Z WRF is showing a chance of low level clouds Saturday evening, but high pressure is the dominating pattern overall. Highs Sunday should be around our seasonal average across the Commonwealth, warmer than what we've been seeing.

Long-term:

Monday looks to be another below-average day temperature-wise. A stronger front than the one we will see this weekend is predicted to come through, however the WRF, GFS, and SREF are keeping us dry on Monday. The system looks as though it will be strung across the state in a nearly directly east-west orientation, which leaves us with a few lingering clouds. Tuesday might bring a chance of precipitation and definite cloud cover, and the long-term GFS agrees. 


Burkely Twiest


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