Friday, October 22, 2010

10/22 Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

High temperatures across the Commonwealth due to a high pressure system are the main story for the weekend, along with some passing clouds and breezy conditions. Clouds build in with the approach of the work week, and our next system is approaching from the west. This system looks like it will wreak havoc in the west, and models are unusually inconsistent with regards to it. What we can say is that there is a high likelihood of showers and possibly thunderstorms throughout Pennsylvania on Monday (particularly toward the evening) and Tuesday.

Short-term:

This weekend looks to hold higher temperatures and only a slight chance of precipitation until Sunday evening. Breezy conditions today will continue throughout the weekend, although it looks as though the winds will be a bit calmer. These winds are from the south, contributing to the warmth across the Commonwealth. The models are showing a slight chance of precipitation in the northwestern parts of the state, though we expect nothing significant.

Long-term:

There is a major storm brewing for the beginning of next work week, although the models are still in disagreement as to what its impacts will be to Pennsylvania are in disagreement. The latest, 12Z models, show a fairly significant amount of precipitation moving into the western part of the state on Tuesday, although we called for a chance of scattered showers across the Commonwealth for both Monday and Tuesday. The timing of the cold front associated with the next system has changed from the past few runs and now looks to be passing on Monday evening. Models still are inconsistent as to how much precipitation and the extent of it.

Burkely Twiest


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