Synopsis:
As the system moves to our northeast and lingers over Maine, breezy to windy conditions will persist through Sunday. A weak cold front will bring some clouds. And as the flow turns zonal, a fast-moving disturbance has a good shot of bringing scattered showers or periods of rain early next week.
Short-term:
Models have been consistent over many days in keeping showers or periods of rain around Scranton as the low deepens on Friday; however, the 0Z WRF is the driest I've seen. But elsewhere in PA the models have been tending towards fewer showers as the reinforcing short-wave out of the Great Lakes becomes less defined.
Long-term:
With the Sat. night cold front, there simply isn't enough moisture at any level in the atmosphere for there to be rain. With very low SRF probability values and no rain out of any operational model, dry is a safe forecast. With the Monday night short-wave, the 0Z WRF again breaks the model tendencies with a much drier solution, but the 0Z GFS is consistent with precip amounts. Models are also tending to push this system further to the south.
Scott Sieron
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