Technical Discussion

Synopsis…. 

A front will remain over the state through Monday, bringing with it the chance for scattered showers and even a rumble of thunder.  Behind the front, high pressure will build into the region, allowing for more sunshine and drier conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.   A low pressure system and associated cold front will approach the region on Thursday, with a slight chance of precipitation.

Short-Term….   

The models are in pretty good agreement about the passage of the quasi-stationary front by early Tuesday morning.  The GFS 12 UTC run is projecting light rain late Monday night in association with this, beginning in the northwestern portions of the state and propagating southeastward and ending early Tuesday morning in the western portions of the state and Tuesday afternoon in eastern portions.   The WRF, on the other hand, has spottier showers initiating at around the same time but lingering around in eastern portions of the state longer.  The SREF plumes are in decent agreement about the light precipitation starting Monday night and ending mid to late Tuesday.  We forecasted for rain accordingly, being quite conservative in amounts, as no models seem to indicate this as being a significant precipitation event.  We also made a mention of a possible thunderstorm or two later on Monday, as the Storm Prediction Center suggests the possibility, but the projected CAPE values from the SREF ensemble and the RUC analysis were not impressive at all, so we were quite conservative in mentioning this possibility.

Long-Term….

The models all agree on a ridge of high pressure building into the state behind the front until at least Wednesday.   The WRF and GFS relative humidity projections both show a dry slot at both the lower and mid tropospheric levels at least on Wednesday, before another low pressure system approaches the region on Thursday.  We were very conservative in forecasting precipitation in association with the passage of the front, as the timing is uncertain and the models suggest very little, if any precipitation.