Synopsis:
After some nice WNW breezes on Friday, the wind shifts southerly. If it weren't for clouds, we would have a great shot at challenging record highs. Nevertheless, the next system's warm front brings clouds across PA, along with showers perhaps as south as northern PA. The cold front passage spreads rain (and thunderstorms?) across the entire Commonwealth on Monday. But from Tuesday on, even somewhat on Monday, the forecast is up in the air.
Short-term:
Skies will quickly clear in the morning with plenty of dry air moving in. All of the sunshine makes it a little hard to forecast a lower high on Friday than what we saw on Thursday. Clouds move in on Saturday with the warm front. The model trend has been to keep the showers further and further north, but we were conservative and kept the showers in the forecast for northern regions.
Long-term:
There's going to be a big storm somewhere to our west or northwest. The CMC 12Z coastal low solution seems like the only clear outlier; everything else is inconsistent and seems equally likely. Forecast conservatively: to simply say "chance of rain" with this much uncertainty is probably the best way to communicate both the potential and the uncertainty.
Scott Sieron
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