Synopsis...
One more day of sunshine and average temperatures will grace Pennsylvania before low pressure from the South brings rain, clouds, below average temperatures and breezy conditions for Thursday and Friday. Friday night will have showers ending, but we will remain chilly through Saturday. As the weekend progresses, the clearing will continue with temperatures starting to rebound closer to average on Sunday.
Near Term (Wednesday) ...
After a very chilly night across the state due to radiational cooling, temperatures will rebound rather nicely on Wednesday thanks to clear skies. A weak high pressure to our north will bring Pennsylvania sunshine and average temperatures one last day before clouds increase overnight and rain returns on Thursday.
Short Term (Thursday-Friday Night)...
Our next big storm system comes into play early morning on Thursday. Rain will move in from the west and slowly cover the entire state as the day continues. We tended to go with the WRF since we thought the GFS was too intense with the low. There should be enough moisture to bring some decent amounts of precipitation to most areas (generally .5" to 1" with the highest amounts in the eastern zones). Temperatures behind this system will drop off into the low 50s for Thursday and remain similar for Friday as a cool, north-westerly wind builds in. Rain will be ending in the west overnight Thursday and early Friday for places in the east. From Friday morning (in the west) into Friday night (in the east), expect skies to begin to clear. Temperatures will remain similar to the values from Thursday. Also on Friday, expect rather breezy conditions as the PGF increases die to the low on the coast intensifying. Winds at 850mb will be near 40 kts (just below 50kt prediction of GFS) over State College to name one location and could easily mix down since winds will be aligned in the column and there will be instability provided by upper level low.
Long Term (Saturday- Sunday)...
Saturday will be nicer as high pressure returns from the West both at the surface and aloft. This will help continue the clearing, but it will remain chilly (5-10 degrees below average) with a northwest breeze. Sunday will feature even more sunshine while temperatures remain below average, but begin to rise. We tended towards GFS MOS for the temperatures for Saturday and Sunday.
Adam Del Rosso
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