Synopsis….
Showers and a few thunderstorms (though not forecasted, by mistake) will form tomorrow as a stationary front stays over Pennsylvania. Then after a brief period with high pressure, another system moves through as early as Wednesday night.
Short-Term….
We can expect showers in most areas tomorrow overnight. The SREF 12HR indicates that only eastern-central PA has a shot as seeing at a semi-significant precip. (>.25 in.). We failed to emphasize the risk of thunderstorms with this; it is there. Temp forecasts on Wednesday did not go above MOS despite sunny skies because of cold air advection.
Long-Term….
Another low pressure system approaches the region on Thursday. The timing issues are apparent between the different models, and it even shows up on SREF probability with a large area of low probability. We forecasted the quicker solution to be safe. 12Z CMC lingers rain in the Philadelphia area through early Friday, but does not have the rain across western and central PA on Friday because it does not have the small second system that the GFS does; we went wet on Friday for the most part. Another interesting thing is the trend to pull the strong low well off the coast more westward; the 0Z GFS has the most easterly solution at this point. Definitely something to monitor if this trend continues, and we forecasted chance of heavy rain for southeast and eastern PA to reflect this development.
Scott Sieron
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