Synopsis:
A generally quiet pattern is setting up through the weekend with only a couple small systems at most skirting PA. Temperatures are cooler. Uncertainty spikes higher at the 5-7 day outlook.
Short-term:
Showers are ongoing in these overnight hours around and south of Erie and Bradford and will likely continue through the day tomorrow. Showers may continue during the day as far south as Johnstown, but as a forecasting group we weren't convinced. An Alberta-clipper-like system will likely move to our north across Canada, but showers cannot be ruled out in the northern counties. The model trend however has been to take this farther and farther north.
Long-term (next work week):
The GFS has a cut-off low far to the south and quite calm conditions in the northeast; the trend has been for the low to cut-off later in the week and to end up farther to the west and south. The CMC has a small shortwave on Monday, and then a coastal low. As a group we discussed thoroughly how to forecast this and decided to simply just go with the GFS solution. We didn't like the messy set-up for the coastal low, with 3 or 4 different short waves getting all mixed together. To forecast for a change of rain (or rain/snow in the mnts.) would be equally valid meteorologically, but would be the result of a different interpretation of the risk and uncertainty.
Scott Sieron
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