Synopsis:
This week's weather is dominated by a relatively stationary cut-off low and a surface low that slowly migrates from the East Coast to over Pennsylvania.
Short Term:
Looking at the 15Z SREF precip probability 12-hours out to 0Z Tuesday, it shows a high chance of much of central PA receiving a quarter of an inch or more, and a significant chance of a half inch or more. We think this warrants more than a forecast for showers, and instead being closer to "Periods of Rain."
Long Term:
The models agree enough to say with some certainty that the most numerous of showers for much of the rest of the week will be in the west. Scattered showers are possible anywhere, though, except the southeast looks like it gets into the heart of the dry air during the middle of the week. Overall, the intensity and spread of the showers definitely begins to decline Monday night through the rest of the week. As far as showers lingering on Thursday, we probably overforecasted it, but we still kept it widely scattered or isolated. We did think that the GFS was a bit too quick with the exit, perhaps in a similar fashion to last week's storms; but at the same time, the CMC wasn't that much slower than the GFS.
Scott Sieron
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