Technical Discussion

Technical Discussion—Monday Afternoon Shift—10/4/10

Synopsis:

A huge upper level cut off low will dominate the weather this week keeping the region wet and cool. This system will dominate the weather through Thursday before finally vacating the region by Friday.

Short Term:

Much like last week, as this cut off low rotates; it will spawn surface low pressure systems that will bring swaths of rain to the region. However, the main distinction between last week's storm and this one is the placement of the cut off low. Last week the cut off low was situated over the southern tip of Appalachia which allowed for the system to draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and made the precipitation train up the east coast causing severe flooding (especially when the system tapped into Tropical Storm Nicole's moisture.) Luckily, this low set itself up over the Ohio River Valley meaning that the only source of moisture it has is the Atlantic which is good news because this will cause on average less rainfall than the system from a week ago. We agree with Scott that there is enough moisture with this system to warrant "periods of rain" over rain showers for Tuesday however, we would only limit this to the mountainous portions of the state.

Long Term:

The rain will stick around on Wednesday however, the only regions that could see 'significant' rainfall would be the NC, NW, PM, regions with other mountainous regions seeing more in the way of scattered showers. This storm will begin to lift out of the region Wednesday night and into Thursday before a large ridge of high pressure sets up camp Thursday night. This ridge will allow for sunny skies to return just in time for the homecoming parade on Friday and the pleasant conditions should persist through the weekend.

Longer Term:

This ridge of high pressure is going to be a stickler and it appears as though it will keep us dry at least through the beginning of the next work week.

RJ Patrizio