Thursday, October 21, 2010

Forecast Discussion

Synopsis...

Scattered rain showers are in store for the commonwealth on Thursday. Most areas will see a piece of this system, but overall its not that strong and shouldn't completely damper anyone's day. Our next big system moves into the picture Sunday for the beginning of next week. Temperatures by the end of the week will warm to above average levels.

Short Term...

The WRF shows a weaker upper-level low pressure system moving into the northern regions of the commonwealth. MOS outputs are showing a moderate chance of precipitation for most regions, with regions in the north more likely to see something compared to the south. Regardless, these scattered showers will be moving throughout the state Thursday and should move out of the commonwealth by 18Z. A secondary punch of showers, however, appears to build in behind this initial system. It will not be as strong as the previous system, but should have enough energy to keep an isolated shower possible through the early morning Friday. Friday looks to be very cool with morning lows possibly breaking the upper 20s for some regions. Expect mostly cloudy skies for most areas on Friday.

Long Term...

A strong SW flow, as well as a ridge, will build in Saturday morning from a previous westerly flow. This will cause morning lows in most regions to be similar to Fridays, but temperatures will be on the order of 10-15 degrees warmer in the afternoon, making for a beautiful day to get out on Saturday. On Sunday, however, this ridge will move off to the east and a strong upper level trough will break into the commonwealth on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to stay a bit warmer ahead of this system. WRF shows this system to be very large... meaning that the rain associated with it will probably last from Sunday night through the middle of the week next week. This system will definitely require closer attention as we get closer to the weekend.


Andrew Dzambo


We Are... Penn State Meteorology



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