Synopsis...
Rain, and lots of it, will be moving through the commonwealth during the day Wednesday. A steep temperature drop will follow this system. Though I am expecting every day through this forecast period to remain rain-free, the models are still suggesting isolated showers for some regions. Aside from that, Thursday and beyond looks great.
Short Term...
A steady SSE flow will pump very warm temperatures into the state for this time of year - many regions reaching or breaking the 70s for highs - for Tuesday. Expect a cloudy day for most regions on Tuesday. A strong cold front tries to push its way through the commonwealth on Wednesday. The more recent 0Z NAM run has the front moving much slower than expected, and may not enter the state until early morning Wednesday. Given the original time for this system to be gone war around 0Z Wednesday night, the front will probably not pass through until early in the morning on Thursday. Many regions, especially in or near the mountains, can expect patchy fog on both mornings. Also, behind this front is a noticeable temperature drop - around the magnitude of 15-20 degrees. For this reason, I am expecting Wednesday to be a very windy day, with Thursday being much cooler (and closer to seasonable).
Long Term...
Friday and Saturday look to be very similar in terms of weather. WRF shows a steady westerly flow, with MOS indicating a general temperature range a bit cooler than seasonable for this time of year. Nothing in the way of big systems are looming at the end of this forecast period, or into early next week.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
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