Technical Discussion

Synopsis...

A stubborn upper level low will continue to spin over the Commonwealth through Wed night before lifting northeast on Thursday.  Cool, damp weather will be the story throughout the region until Thursday when sunshine will return along with warmer temperatures.  Seasonable temperatures and sunny skies will be featured for the weekend as a large ridge of high pressure builds in from the northwest.

Short Term (Tues-Wed Night)...

Sfc low pres center currently situated just off of NJ coast will retrograde throughout the day as it gets pulled under the upper level low and the entire system becomes stacked over Ohio.  Scattered showers and drizzle are likely today as boundary layer remains saturated. As the low moves westward tonight, eastern zones should fare better with little rainfall.  Western half of the state should remain damp throughout the night.  Temperatures will be sluggish to move upward (esp western/northern mtns) with highs in the 40s and 50s in the cool spots.  60s are possible in warmer regions but everyone will see a rather damp, dreary day.  Tomorrow will be slightly better than today in the eastern zones with some peeks of sun possible.  Do not expect it to be a pleasant day though due to continued presence of ULL.  Temperatures will be a bit warmer tomorrow as much of the state gets into a weak southerly flow regime as sfc low moves towards Ohio.  Showers will begin to taper off across the entire Commonwealth on Wed night.

Long Term (Thurs-Sat)...

A 500mb shortwave trough will dig into the Great lakes and Northeast by Wed night/Thurs, and will help to kick the cut off ULL northeast and out of the area.  Thursday will be the nicest day since Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds.  Expect breezy conditions as low pressure center deepens as it heads northeast.  Temperatures rebound nicely into the 60s for most areas.  Friday and Saturday look beautiful as high pressure builds in from the northwest keeping skies clear and temperatures in the 60s and 70s during the day.  Nights will be chilly as is expected in early October.

-Dan DePodwin