Thursday, October 21, 2010

21z Technical Discussion - 10/21

Synopsis…

A large trough continues to sweep through the northeastern US, bringing with it the first chance for snow showers in some parts of the state. Scattered instability and lake-effect rain and snow shwrs will continue across the northern and western zones overnight. A return to warmth will try to trick us ahead of a major fall storm setting up in the Great Lakes region.

 

Short Term…

First snowflakes of the season may affect the western and northern parts of the state behind cold front. The gusty NW winds should not be much of a factor after tomorrow morning. Only scattered sprinkles/flurries will affect the same areas, but otherwise, expect clouds to part and temperatures to moderate as we head into the weekend.

 

Long Term…

Interesting weather pattern to say the least coming up for next week. Models have mixed precip outputs for late weekend, with some skirting the northern tier with light showers. Kept showers in the forecast north of I-80, but do not see enough evidence yet near the Mason-Dixon line. Expect a surge of warmth late in the weekend. We considered going even higher on the temps (well above 70 in spots?), but went with consistency with previous forecasts. This could provide enough instability to support storms, but we'll leave exact timing and intensity to later shifts. Jamba

 

Forecaster: Matt Mahalik

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